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0.2391677289650047, "range_position": 0.7660320788729511 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 57.4, "relative_strength": 66.7, "rs_slope": 0.0, "momentum": 73.2, "range_position": 76.6 }, "ticker": "LIT", "name": "Lithium & Battery Metals" }, { "score": 13.2, "classification": "Lagging", "confidence": 1.0, "components": { "pct_above_ma": -0.09940146629598823, "relative_strength": -0.16782126138384124, "rs_slope": -0.005071588947766487, "momentum_return": -0.07892145368435455, "range_position": 0.41581452385192963 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 4.4, "relative_strength": 0.0, "rs_slope": 0.0, "momentum": 20.2, "range_position": 41.6 }, "ticker": "GDX", "name": "Gold Miners" } ] }, { "score": 35.1, "classification": "Weakening", "confidence": 1.0, "components": { "pct_above_ma": 0.043975418530617816, "relative_strength": -0.09039649318774878, "rs_slope": -0.0008012696986277101, "momentum_return": -0.001496685488262095, "range_position": 0.8454744525374441 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 34.9, "relative_strength": 13.2, "rs_slope": 9.9, "momentum": 33.1, "range_position": 84.5 }, "ticker": "XLV", "name": "Health Care", "subsectors": [ { "score": 66.6, "classification": "Improving", "confidence": 1.0, "components": { "pct_above_ma": 0.11957502658669106, "relative_strength": 0.0008137003758856842, "rs_slope": 0.0015018721688713987, "momentum_return": 0.08971350807537237, "range_position": 1.0 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 51.0, "relative_strength": 33.5, "rs_slope": 100.0, "momentum": 48.3, "range_position": 100.0 }, "ticker": "IHF", "name": "Healthcare Providers" }, { "score": 37.3, "classification": "Weakening", "confidence": 1.0, "components": { "pct_above_ma": 0.06472551977682661, "relative_strength": -0.045678301567620094, "rs_slope": -0.0010192886133948476, "momentum_return": 0.043221506131866594, "range_position": 0.8337164094596426 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 39.3, "relative_strength": 23.2, "rs_slope": 0.0, "momentum": 40.5, "range_position": 83.4 }, "ticker": "PPH", "name": "Pharmaceuticals" }, { "score": 33.0, "classification": "Weakening", "confidence": 1.0, "components": { "pct_above_ma": 0.03349590907983768, "relative_strength": -0.0872053745913739, "rs_slope": -0.002601306820344895, "momentum_return": 0.0016944331081127917, "range_position": 0.8458419922268738 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 32.7, "relative_strength": 14.0, "rs_slope": 0.0, "momentum": 33.6, "range_position": 84.6 }, "ticker": "IBB", "name": "Biotech" }, { "score": 4.5, "classification": "Lagging", "confidence": 1.0, "components": { "pct_above_ma": -0.12357766604296705, "relative_strength": -0.27475283719210075, "rs_slope": -0.0036887684141754195, "momentum_return": -0.18585302949261406, "range_position": 0.2017211036655 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 0.0, "relative_strength": 0.0, "rs_slope": 0.0, "momentum": 2.4, "range_position": 20.2 }, "ticker": "IHI", "name": "Medical Devices" } ] }, { "score": 34.5, "classification": "Weakening", "confidence": 1.0, "components": { "pct_above_ma": 0.04103326985664846, "relative_strength": -0.018434192294321194, "rs_slope": -0.0013923064635501636, "momentum_return": 0.0704656154051655, "range_position": 0.6378406419298783 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 34.3, "relative_strength": 29.2, "rs_slope": 0.0, "momentum": 45.1, "range_position": 63.8 }, "ticker": "XLP", "name": "Consumer Staples", "subsectors": [ { "score": 30.8, "classification": "Weakening", "confidence": 1.0, "components": { "pct_above_ma": 0.012004447204060575, "relative_strength": -0.04251461693792691, "rs_slope": -0.0032054226238028504, "momentum_return": 0.04638519076155978, "range_position": 0.6075438851538849 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 28.1, "relative_strength": 23.9, "rs_slope": 0.0, "momentum": 41.1, "range_position": 60.8 }, "ticker": "PBJ", "name": "Food & Beverage" } ] }, { "score": 28.7, "classification": "Weakening", "confidence": 1.0, "components": { "pct_above_ma": -0.0025303625374729632, "relative_strength": -0.05652418181170149, "rs_slope": -0.0034172596618843977, "momentum_return": 0.0323756258877852, "range_position": 0.5898584273139084 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 25.0, "relative_strength": 20.8, "rs_slope": 0.0, "momentum": 38.7, "range_position": 59.0 }, "ticker": "XLU", "name": "Utilities", "subsectors": [] }, { "score": 22.9, "classification": "Lagging", "confidence": 1.0, "components": { "pct_above_ma": 0.003665879752307255, "relative_strength": -0.1266529594048068, "rs_slope": -0.0021540566239832914, "momentum_return": -0.03775315170532012, "range_position": 0.5601349320790403 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 26.3, "relative_strength": 5.2, "rs_slope": 0.0, "momentum": 27.0, "range_position": 56.0 }, "ticker": "XLF", "name": "Financials", "subsectors": [ { "score": 41.7, "classification": "Weakening", "confidence": 1.0, "components": { "pct_above_ma": 0.08645717880779302, "relative_strength": -0.016911149399187142, "rs_slope": -0.0023339882711469863, "momentum_return": 0.07198865830029955, "range_position": 0.8954607034382398 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 43.9, "relative_strength": 29.6, "rs_slope": 0.0, "momentum": 45.3, "range_position": 89.5 }, "ticker": "KRE", "name": "Regional Banks" }, { "score": 39.1, "classification": "Weakening", "confidence": 1.0, "components": { "pct_above_ma": 0.07134761579742221, "relative_strength": -0.03718121714812894, "rs_slope": -0.002462160094940241, "momentum_return": 0.051718590551357746, "range_position": 0.8790035178349782 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 40.7, "relative_strength": 25.1, "rs_slope": 0.0, "momentum": 42.0, "range_position": 87.9 }, "ticker": "KBE", "name": "Banks" }, { "score": 31.8, "classification": "Weakening", "confidence": 1.0, "components": { "pct_above_ma": 0.029939444939452553, "relative_strength": -0.0747606670880343, "rs_slope": -0.0012841167850947688, "momentum_return": 0.014139140611452383, "range_position": 0.7473791513473624 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 31.9, "relative_strength": 16.7, "rs_slope": 0.0, "momentum": 35.7, "range_position": 74.7 }, "ticker": "IAI", "name": "Capital Markets" }, { "score": 19.2, "classification": "Lagging", "confidence": 1.0, "components": { "pct_above_ma": -0.010748883464613335, "relative_strength": -0.14392518179005853, "rs_slope": -0.0026426965623455923, "momentum_return": -0.055025374090571844, "range_position": 0.4728758399475545 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 23.2, "relative_strength": 1.3, "rs_slope": 0.0, "momentum": 24.2, "range_position": 47.3 }, "ticker": "KIE", "name": "Insurance" } ] }, { "score": 22.1, "classification": "Lagging", "confidence": 1.0, "components": { "pct_above_ma": -0.012610992757225326, "relative_strength": -0.13323682363960665, "rs_slope": -0.002178996482432094, "momentum_return": -0.04433701594011996, "range_position": 0.5785079643375302 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 22.8, "relative_strength": 3.7, "rs_slope": 0.0, "momentum": 25.9, "range_position": 57.9 }, "ticker": "XLY", "name": "Consumer Discretionary", "subsectors": [ { "score": 43.4, "classification": "Neutral", "confidence": 1.0, "components": { "pct_above_ma": 0.0753628406406277, "relative_strength": -0.07894102983225659, "rs_slope": 2.3577141711661477e-05, "momentum_return": 0.009958777867230095, "range_position": 0.7337494045174057 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 41.6, "relative_strength": 15.8, "rs_slope": 51.2, "momentum": 35.0, "range_position": 73.4 }, "ticker": "JETS", "name": "Airlines & Travel" }, { "score": 25.2, "classification": "Weakening", "confidence": 1.0, "components": { "pct_above_ma": 0.004112554645308686, "relative_strength": -0.1172002805523722, "rs_slope": -0.0034293195604934877, "momentum_return": -0.028300472852885505, "range_position": 0.6354482985955064 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 26.4, "relative_strength": 7.3, "rs_slope": 0.0, "momentum": 28.6, "range_position": 63.5 }, "ticker": "XRT", "name": "Retail" }, { "score": 24.6, "classification": "Lagging", "confidence": 1.0, "components": { "pct_above_ma": -0.002106551783343291, "relative_strength": -0.08947392812071064, "rs_slope": -0.0037177914625734164, "momentum_return": -0.0005741204212239559, "range_position": 0.5109125924470098 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 25.1, "relative_strength": 13.5, "rs_slope": 0.0, "momentum": 33.2, "range_position": 51.1 }, "ticker": "XHB", "name": "Homebuilders" } ] }, { "score": 21.3, "classification": "Lagging", "confidence": 1.0, "components": { "pct_above_ma": -0.030448183305567422, "relative_strength": -0.1264068401939752, "rs_slope": -0.0026895273033580025, "momentum_return": -0.0375070324944885, "range_position": 0.5527471624032128 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 19.1, "relative_strength": 5.2, "rs_slope": 0.0, "momentum": 27.1, "range_position": 55.3 }, "ticker": "XLC", "name": "Communication Services", "subsectors": [ { "score": 6.4, "classification": "Lagging", "confidence": 1.0, "components": { "pct_above_ma": -0.12207926717521311, "relative_strength": -0.2319120391467493, "rs_slope": -0.0026013588505335973, "momentum_return": -0.1430122314472626, "range_position": 0.2267829104897186 }, "sub_scores": { "trend": 0.0, "relative_strength": 0.0, "rs_slope": 0.0, "momentum": 9.5, "range_position": 22.7 }, "ticker": "SOCL", "name": "Social Media" } ] } ] }, "insights": [ { "tone": "positive", "text": "VIX term structure holds contango (1.02) \u2014 options markets price calm ahead; junk bonds are outperforming quality (HYG>LQD)." }, { "tone": "positive", "text": "Under the surface: 30 of 44 tracked ETFs (68%) hold their 50-day average, 80% hold their 200-day \u2014 participation is broad and structurally healthy." }, { "tone": "neutral", "text": "Score attribution (medium-term): momentum is the biggest drag (52/100, +0.2 weighted pts vs neutral); credit is the biggest support (70/100, +3.0 pts)." }, { "tone": "positive", "text": "Hidden leader: Healthcare Providers (IHF) scores 87 inside Health Care (39, ranked #4) \u2014 strength the sector-level view masks." } ], "predictions": { "disclaimer": "Experimental. These outlooks are probabilistic tilts derived from leading indicators, trend trajectory, and historical rotation patterns \u2014 not guarantees. Position sizing and risk management still matter.", "history_days_available": 10, "short": { "market": { "bias_score": -10.5, "label": "Headwinds building", "tone": "caution", "confidence": "moderate", "drivers": [ { "impact": -10.0, "text": "Score trajectory: short-term market score -11 pts over the past 10 sessions" }, { "impact": -8.5, "text": "Trend persistence: trend category at 26 (a drag for continuation)" }, { "impact": 8, "text": "Divergence: breadth improving under a flat tape \u2014 broadening participation often precedes upside" } ] }, "sectors": [ { "ticker": "XLK", "name": "Technology", "current_score": 59.0, "outlook": "Heating Up", "conviction": "Low", "reasons": [ "Mid-pack score with improving relative strength \u2014 upgrades often follow", "Score lost 36 pts over recent sessions" ] }, { "ticker": "XLP", "name": "Consumer Staples", "current_score": 36.3, "outlook": "Bottoming", "conviction": "Low", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair", "Defensive rotation candidate if broad weakness develops" ] }, { "ticker": "XLV", "name": "Health Care", "current_score": 61.9, "outlook": "Range-bound", "conviction": "Low", "reasons": [ "Mid-pack score with deteriorating relative strength", "Score gained 20 pts over recent sessions", "Defensive rotation candidate if broad weakness develops" ] }, { "ticker": "XLRE", "name": "Real Estate", "current_score": 45.4, "outlook": "Cooling", "conviction": "Low", "reasons": [ "Mid-pack score with deteriorating relative strength", "Score gained 4 pts over recent sessions", "Rising yields pressure REITs" ] }, { "ticker": "XLI", "name": "Industrials", "current_score": 42.3, "outlook": "Cooling", "conviction": "Moderate", "reasons": [ "Mid-pack score with deteriorating relative strength" ] }, { "ticker": "XLF", "name": "Financials", "current_score": 39.9, "outlook": "Staying Weak", "conviction": "Low", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair", "Score gained 16 pts over recent sessions", "Flattening curve squeezes bank margins" ] }, { "ticker": "XLE", "name": "Energy", "current_score": 37.0, "outlook": "Staying Weak", "conviction": "Low", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair", "Score gained 10 pts over recent sessions" ] }, { "ticker": "XLB", "name": "Materials", "current_score": 30.7, "outlook": "Staying Weak", "conviction": "Moderate", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair" ] }, { "ticker": "XLU", "name": "Utilities", "current_score": 26.8, "outlook": "Staying Weak", "conviction": "Moderate", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair", "Rising yields pressure bond proxies", "Defensive rotation candidate if broad weakness develops" ] }, { "ticker": "XLY", "name": "Consumer Discretionary", "current_score": 24.9, "outlook": "Staying Weak", "conviction": "High", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair", "Score lost 23 pts over recent sessions" ] }, { "ticker": "XLC", "name": "Communication Services", "current_score": 21.7, "outlook": "Staying Weak", "conviction": "High", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair", "Score lost 12 pts over recent sessions" ] } ] }, "medium": { "market": { "bias_score": -7.0, "label": "Range-bound / mixed", "tone": "neutral", "confidence": "low", "drivers": [ { "impact": -8.2, "text": "Score trajectory: medium-term market score -8 pts over the past 10 sessions" }, { "impact": 1.2, "text": "Trend persistence: trend category at 53 (supportive for continuation)" } ] }, "sectors": [ { "ticker": "XLK", "name": "Technology", "current_score": 88.1, "outlook": "Staying Strong", "conviction": "Low", "reasons": [ "High score with intact relative strength", "Score lost 12 pts over recent sessions" ] }, { "ticker": "XLRE", "name": "Real Estate", "current_score": 42.9, "outlook": "Cooling", "conviction": "High", "reasons": [ "Mid-pack score with deteriorating relative strength", "Rising yields pressure REITs" ] }, { "ticker": "XLI", "name": "Industrials", "current_score": 40.7, "outlook": "Cooling", "conviction": "Low", "reasons": [ "Mid-pack score with deteriorating relative strength", "Score gained 5 pts over recent sessions" ] }, { "ticker": "XLV", "name": "Health Care", "current_score": 39.0, "outlook": "Staying Weak", "conviction": "Low", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair", "Score gained 12 pts over recent sessions" ] }, { "ticker": "XLF", "name": "Financials", "current_score": 34.3, "outlook": "Staying Weak", "conviction": "Low", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair", "Score gained 7 pts over recent sessions", "Flattening curve squeezes bank margins" ] }, { "ticker": "XLB", "name": "Materials", "current_score": 31.5, "outlook": "Staying Weak", "conviction": "Moderate", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair" ] }, { "ticker": "XLE", "name": "Energy", "current_score": 29.1, "outlook": "Staying Weak", "conviction": "Moderate", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair" ] }, { "ticker": "XLY", "name": "Consumer Discretionary", "current_score": 28.9, "outlook": "Staying Weak", "conviction": "High", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair", "Score lost 20 pts over recent sessions" ] }, { "ticker": "XLP", "name": "Consumer Staples", "current_score": 26.6, "outlook": "Staying Weak", "conviction": "Moderate", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair" ] }, { "ticker": "XLC", "name": "Communication Services", "current_score": 20.8, "outlook": "Staying Weak", "conviction": "High", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair", "Score lost 13 pts over recent sessions" ] }, { "ticker": "XLU", "name": "Utilities", "current_score": 19.9, "outlook": "Staying Weak", "conviction": "High", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair", "Score lost 6 pts over recent sessions", "Rising yields pressure bond proxies" ] } ] }, "long": { "market": { "bias_score": 5.3, "label": "Range-bound / mixed", "tone": "neutral", "confidence": "low", "drivers": [ { "impact": 13.3, "text": "Trend persistence: trend category at 87 (supportive for continuation)" }, { "impact": -6, "text": "Yield curve flattening \u2014 late-cycle caution" }, { "impact": -2.0, "text": "Score trajectory: long-term market score -2 pts over the past 10 sessions" } ] }, "sectors": [ { "ticker": "XLK", "name": "Technology", "current_score": 81.1, "outlook": "Staying Strong", "conviction": "Low", "reasons": [ "High score with intact relative strength", "Score lost 19 pts over recent sessions" ] }, { "ticker": "XLE", "name": "Energy", "current_score": 59.7, "outlook": "Cooling", "conviction": "High", "reasons": [ "Mid-pack score with deteriorating relative strength", "Score lost 16 pts over recent sessions" ] }, { "ticker": "XLRE", "name": "Real Estate", "current_score": 47.1, "outlook": "Cooling", "conviction": "High", "reasons": [ "Mid-pack score with deteriorating relative strength", "Score lost 19 pts over recent sessions", "Rising yields pressure REITs" ] }, { "ticker": "XLI", "name": "Industrials", "current_score": 46.5, "outlook": "Cooling", "conviction": "High", "reasons": [ "Mid-pack score with deteriorating relative strength", "Score lost 28 pts over recent sessions" ] }, { "ticker": "XLB", "name": "Materials", "current_score": 43.4, "outlook": "Cooling", "conviction": "High", "reasons": [ "Mid-pack score with deteriorating relative strength", "Score lost 30 pts over recent sessions" ] }, { "ticker": "XLV", "name": "Health Care", "current_score": 35.1, "outlook": "Staying Weak", "conviction": "Low", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair", "Score gained 6 pts over recent sessions" ] }, { "ticker": "XLP", "name": "Consumer Staples", "current_score": 34.5, "outlook": "Staying Weak", "conviction": "High", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair", "Score lost 17 pts over recent sessions" ] }, { "ticker": "XLU", "name": "Utilities", "current_score": 28.7, "outlook": "Staying Weak", "conviction": "High", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair", "Score lost 10 pts over recent sessions", "Rising yields pressure bond proxies" ] }, { "ticker": "XLF", "name": "Financials", "current_score": 22.9, "outlook": "Staying Weak", "conviction": "High", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair", "Flattening curve squeezes bank margins" ] }, { "ticker": "XLY", "name": "Consumer Discretionary", "current_score": 22.1, "outlook": "Staying Weak", "conviction": "High", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair", "Score lost 20 pts over recent sessions" ] }, { "ticker": "XLC", "name": "Communication Services", "current_score": 21.3, "outlook": "Staying Weak", "conviction": "High", "reasons": [ "Weak score with no sign of relative repair", "Score lost 15 pts over recent sessions" ] } ] } }, "data_quality": { "yahoo": { "successes": [ "SPY", "QQQ", "IWM", "DIA", "RSP", "XLK", "XLV", "XLF", "XLY", "XLC", "XLI", "XLP", "XLE", "XLU", "XLB", "XLRE", "SOXX", "DRAM", "IGV", "SKYY", "FDN", "HACK", "IBB", "IHI", "IHF", "PPH", "KBE", "KRE", "KIE", "IAI", "XRT", "XHB", "JETS", "SOCL", "ITA", "IYT", "XME", "XOP", "OIH", "TAN", "GDX", "LIT", "PBJ", "REM", "REZ", "^VIX", "^VVIX", "^VIX3M", "HYG", "LQD", "DX-Y.NYB", "GC=F", "HG=F", "CL=F", "^TNX", "^TYX", "^IRX" ], "failures": {}, "warnings": [ "SPY: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "QQQ: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "IWM: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "DIA: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "RSP: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "XLK: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "XLV: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "XLF: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "XLY: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "XLC: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "XLI: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "XLP: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "XLE: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "XLU: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "XLB: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "XLRE: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "SOXX: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "DRAM: dropped 1/48 rows with NaN in OHLC", "IGV: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "SKYY: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "FDN: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "HACK: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "IBB: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "IHI: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "IHF: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "PPH: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "KBE: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "KRE: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "KIE: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "IAI: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "XRT: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "XHB: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "JETS: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "SOCL: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "ITA: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "IYT: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "XME: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "XOP: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "OIH: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "TAN: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "GDX: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "LIT: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "PBJ: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "REM: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "REZ: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "HYG: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC", "LQD: dropped 1/275 rows with NaN in OHLC" ] }, "fred": { "successes": [ "T10Y2Y", "DGS2", "DGS10", "BAMLH0A0HYM2", "BAMLC0A4CBBB", "DFF", "WALCL" ], "failures": {}, "warnings": [] } }, "universe": [ { "group": "Broad market", "ticker": "SPY", "name": "S&P 500", "why": "The benchmark. Cap-weighted; dominated by mega-caps." }, { "group": "Broad market", "ticker": "QQQ", "name": "Nasdaq 100", "why": "Tech-heavy growth proxy. Risk-on leadership signal." }, { "group": "Broad market", "ticker": "IWM", "name": "Russell 2000", "why": "Small caps. Strength signals risk appetite; weakness signals defensiveness." }, { "group": "Broad market", "ticker": "DIA", "name": "Dow Jones", "why": "Old-economy blue chips. Confirmation index for SPY moves." }, { "group": "Broad market", "ticker": "RSP", "name": "S&P 500 Equal Weight", "why": "Used to compare against SPY: if RSP keeps up, breadth is healthy." }, { "group": "Sectors", "ticker": "XLK", "name": "Technology", "why": "Largest sector by weight; drives index moves." }, { "group": "Sectors", "ticker": "XLV", "name": "Health Care", "why": "Defensive growth. Often leads in late-cycle environments." }, { "group": "Sectors", "ticker": "XLF", "name": "Financials", "why": "Levered to rates and credit conditions." }, { "group": "Sectors", "ticker": "XLY", "name": "Consumer Discretionary", "why": "Cyclical. Strength = healthy consumer / risk-on." }, { "group": "Sectors", "ticker": "XLC", "name": "Communication Services", "why": "Mega-cap tech + media. Often correlated with QQQ." }, { "group": "Sectors", "ticker": "XLI", "name": "Industrials", "why": "Cyclical. Leads in early-cycle / reflationary regimes." }, { "group": "Sectors", "ticker": "XLP", "name": "Consumer Staples", "why": "Defensive. Outperformance signals risk-off rotation." }, { "group": "Sectors", "ticker": "XLE", "name": "Energy", "why": "Commodity-driven. Inflation hedge; sensitive to oil prices." }, { "group": "Sectors", "ticker": "XLU", "name": "Utilities", "why": "Bond proxy. Outperformance signals defensive positioning or falling yields." }, { "group": "Sectors", "ticker": "XLB", "name": "Materials", "why": "Cyclical. Tracks global growth and commodity demand." }, { "group": "Sectors", "ticker": "XLRE", "name": "Real Estate", "why": "Rate-sensitive. Hurts when long-end yields rise." }, { "group": "Volatility", "ticker": "^VIX", "name": "VIX", "why": "S&P 500 30-day implied vol. The fear gauge \u2014 high = stressed, low = complacent." }, { "group": "Volatility", "ticker": "^VVIX", "name": "VVIX", "why": "Volatility of the VIX. Spikes when traders are unsure how scared to be." }, { "group": "Volatility", "ticker": "^VIX3M", "name": "VIX 3-Month", "why": "3-month implied vol. VIX3M/VIX term structure: contango = calm, backwardation = genuine stress." }, { "group": "Credit ETFs", "ticker": "HYG", "name": "High Yield Corporate Bonds", "why": "Junk bond ETF. HYG vs LQD relative strength is a real-time credit risk gauge." }, { "group": "Credit ETFs", "ticker": "LQD", "name": "Investment Grade Corporate Bonds", "why": "IG bond ETF. The quality benchmark HYG is measured against." }, { "group": "Macro & commodities", "ticker": "DX-Y.NYB", "name": "US Dollar Index (DXY)", "why": "Strong DXY tightens global liquidity and pressures non-US earnings." }, { "group": "Macro & commodities", "ticker": "GC=F", "name": "Gold", "why": "Safe-haven asset; rises when real yields fall or risk-off bid emerges." }, { "group": "Macro & commodities", "ticker": "HG=F", "name": "Copper", "why": "Dr. Copper \u2014 global growth proxy. Rising = expansion." }, { "group": "Macro & commodities", "ticker": "CL=F", "name": "WTI Crude Oil", "why": "Inflation input; supply shocks are macro events." }, { "group": "Macro & commodities", "ticker": "^TNX", "name": "10-Year Treasury Yield", "why": "Discount rate for risk assets. Rising yields = headwind." }, { "group": "Macro & commodities", "ticker": "^TYX", "name": "30-Year Treasury Yield", "why": "Long-end inflation expectations." }, { "group": "Macro & commodities", "ticker": "^IRX", "name": "13-Week Treasury Yield", "why": "Short-end rate; proxy for cash yield." }, { "group": "Macro (FRED)", "ticker": "T10Y2Y", "name": "10Y-2Y Treasury spread", "why": "The yield curve. Negative (inverted) historically precedes recessions by 6\u201318 months." }, { "group": "Macro (FRED)", "ticker": "DGS2", "name": "2-Year Treasury Yield", "why": "Reflects near-term Fed policy expectations." }, { "group": "Macro (FRED)", "ticker": "DGS10", "name": "10-Year Treasury Yield", "why": "Discount rate for long-duration assets." }, { "group": "Macro (FRED)", "ticker": "BAMLH0A0HYM2", "name": "High-Yield Credit Spread", "why": "Premium over Treasuries demanded for junk bonds. Widening = stress, tightening = calm." }, { "group": "Macro (FRED)", "ticker": "BAMLC0A4CBBB", "name": "Investment-Grade BBB Spread", "why": "Investment-grade credit stress. Confirms or contradicts HY signal." }, { "group": "Macro (FRED)", "ticker": "DFF", "name": "Federal Funds Effective Rate", "why": "The Fed's primary policy rate." }, { "group": "Macro (FRED)", "ticker": "WALCL", "name": "Fed Balance Sheet", "why": "Total Fed assets. Expansion = QE/easing, contraction = QT/tightening." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Technology (XLK)", "ticker": "SOXX", "name": "Semiconductors", "why": "Broad chip exposure (NVDA, AVGO, AMD, TSM, etc.). The standard semis fund." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Technology (XLK)", "ticker": "DRAM", "name": "Memory", "why": "Pure-play memory chips (SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron). HBM + DRAM + NAND. Limited history \u2014 launched April 2026." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Technology (XLK)", "ticker": "IGV", "name": "Software", "why": "Application + systems software pure-play (MSFT, ORCL, CRM, etc.)." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Technology (XLK)", "ticker": "SKYY", "name": "Cloud Computing", "why": "Cloud infrastructure plays \u2014 overlaps with software but skews toward AWS/Azure/GCP ecosystem." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Technology (XLK)", "ticker": "FDN", "name": "Internet", "why": "Consumer internet + mega-cap platforms (META, GOOG, AMZN concentration)." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Technology (XLK)", "ticker": "HACK", "name": "Cybersecurity", "why": "Pure-play security (CRWD, PANW, ZS, etc.). Narrow but distinct theme." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Health Care (XLV)", "ticker": "IBB", "name": "Biotech", "why": "Biotech-focused. Distinct beta from broad healthcare; binary clinical-trial risk." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Health Care (XLV)", "ticker": "IHI", "name": "Medical Devices", "why": "Device manufacturers (MDT, ABT, ISRG, etc.). Narrower than XLV." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Health Care (XLV)", "ticker": "IHF", "name": "Healthcare Providers", "why": "Insurers + hospital operators (UNH, CVS, ELV). Different beta from biotech." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Health Care (XLV)", "ticker": "PPH", "name": "Pharmaceuticals", "why": "Big pharma pure play (LLY, JNJ, PFE, etc.)." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Financials (XLF)", "ticker": "KBE", "name": "Banks", "why": "Standard regional + national banks ETF." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Financials (XLF)", "ticker": "KRE", "name": "Regional Banks", "why": "Smaller/mid-cap regionals specifically. Trades quite differently from KBE." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Financials (XLF)", "ticker": "KIE", "name": "Insurance", "why": "Insurance carriers \u2014 life, P&C, brokers." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Financials (XLF)", "ticker": "IAI", "name": "Capital Markets", "why": "Broker-dealers + exchanges (GS, MS, ICE, etc.)." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Consumer Discretionary (XLY)", "ticker": "XRT", "name": "Retail", "why": "Equal-weight retail (AMZN, TGT, COST, BBY, etc.). The classic retail proxy." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Consumer Discretionary (XLY)", "ticker": "XHB", "name": "Homebuilders", "why": "Homebuilding + housing-adjacent. Highly rate-sensitive." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Consumer Discretionary (XLY)", "ticker": "JETS", "name": "Airlines & Travel", "why": "Airlines, cruise lines, hotels. Niche but cleanly defined cyclical." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Communication Services (XLC)", "ticker": "SOCL", "name": "Social Media", "why": "Social platforms \u2014 META, SNAP, PINS. Useful pure-play exposure." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Industrials (XLI)", "ticker": "ITA", "name": "Aerospace & Defense", "why": "Defense contractors + aerospace (LMT, RTX, BA, etc.)." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Industrials (XLI)", "ticker": "IYT", "name": "Transportation", "why": "Rails, trucking, freight (UNP, UPS, FDX). Classic 'Dow Theory' confirmation." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Industrials (XLI)", "ticker": "XME", "name": "Metals & Mining", "why": "Industrial metals miners. Distinct from precious metals in XLB." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Energy (XLE)", "ticker": "XOP", "name": "Oil & Gas Exploration", "why": "Pure upstream E&P. Higher beta than XLE itself." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Energy (XLE)", "ticker": "OIH", "name": "Oil Services", "why": "Services + equipment (SLB, HAL, BKR). Distinct from explorers." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Energy (XLE)", "ticker": "TAN", "name": "Solar / Clean Energy", "why": "Solar pure-play. Distinct from fossil fuels." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Materials (XLB)", "ticker": "GDX", "name": "Gold Miners", "why": "Major gold miners (NEM, GOLD, AEM). Very different from broad materials." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Materials (XLB)", "ticker": "LIT", "name": "Lithium & Battery Metals", "why": "Theme exposure to battery supply chain." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Consumer Staples (XLP)", "ticker": "PBJ", "name": "Food & Beverage", "why": "Food + beverage companies. Cleanest staples sub-cut available." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Real Estate (XLRE)", "ticker": "REM", "name": "Mortgage REITs", "why": "Mortgage REITs (rate-spread plays). Behaves very differently from equity REITs." }, { "group": "Subsectors \u2014 Real Estate (XLRE)", "ticker": "REZ", "name": "Residential REITs", "why": "Apartment + single-family rental REITs." } ] }